Geopolitics

Strategic Implications for the Indo-Pacific Order: Japan’s Defence Transformation and Its Regional Consequences

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Abstract This paper examines the strategic implications of Japan’s ongoing defence transformation for the Indo-Pacific regional order through 2030. Drawing on Japan’s 2022 strategic documents, the 2025–2026 procurement cycle, and the evolving Taiwan contingency, it argues that Japan has crossed a threshold from declaratory posture to fielded operational counter-strike capability — a transition with qualitative …

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Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan: Succession, Sovereignty, and the Architecture of Emirati Power

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By Professor Habib Al Badawi “This paper examines the elevation of Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to the position of Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi as an exercise in strategic regime design rather than hereditary inevitability. Drawing on verified Reuters reporting from 2023–2026, the analysis situates the succession within three interlocking structural …

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The Boulos Factor: Shadow Diplomacy and the Quest for Peace in Sudan

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By Habib Al-Badawi Introduction: From Shadow Diplomacy to Historic Breakthrough The escalating conflagration in Sudan has commanded international attention since April 2023, when a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted into full-scale civil war. Yet the emergence of Massad Boulos as U.S. Senior Advisor for Africa …

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WHAT IS THE COLD START DOCTRINE AND WHY PAKISTAN IS “SHIT SCARED” OF IT

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1. The Strategic Paralysis of Rawalpindi By the end of 2025, the way things work in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape changed a lot. This major shift was mainly caused by a deep change in how the Indian military thinks and plans its operations. The long-standing strategic balance between India and Pakistan was, for many years, …

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Brothers in Blood: The Secret War Between Saudi and the UAE

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By ISSF Admin The Fracture of the Khaleeji Shield The air over the Gulf of Aden was thick with humidity and the smell of salt spray on the morning of December 30, 2025.  In the ancient port city of Mukalla, Yemen, dockworkers were busy unloading the Greenland, a cargo vessel flagged out of St. Kitts.  …

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Governing by Resolve: The Takaichi Effect on Japan’s Domestic Power Architecture

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By Professor Habib Al Badawi Abstract Sanae Takaichi’s October 2025 ascent to Japan’s premiership marks a structural reorientation of Japanese governance beyond a simple Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership transition. I term this shift “command governance”— a model that centralizes decision-making in the Prime Minister’s Office, prioritizes executive action over consensus-building, and transforms fiscal policy …

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The Last Shah or the First Republic? Why India Must Ditch the King and Back the Nationalists in Tehran

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By: ISSF Strategic Desk | January 11, 2026 As of this morning, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not just trembling; it is undergoing a tectonic dissolution. The streets of Tehran are no longer arenas of protest but battlegrounds of a revolutionary endgame. The Rial has cratered, trading at a catastrophic 1.45 million to the …

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Who Killed Osman Hadi? The Truth Behind the Smoke and the Fire on India’s Border

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By ISSF Admin @mujifren Prologue: The Smog of Deception In the choking winter smog of Dhaka, December 2025, the air did not just smell of exhaust and burning refuse; it reeked of a nation decomposing. To the uninitiated observer, the chaos gripping Bangladesh might have appeared as the tragic growing pains of a “Second Revolution,” …

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SILENT REGIME CHANGE: INTELLIGENCE-LED DISPLACEMENT AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE SYRIAN REGIME

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Authored By: Prof. Habib Badawi, Mr. Ali Kassab ABSTRACT This study examines the December 2024 collapse of the Syrian regime as a case of intelligence-led displacement—regime change achieved through covert paralysis of command structures rather than military defeat. Within eleven days, a government that survived thirteen years of civil war ceased functioning without decisive battle, …

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