By Professor Habib Al-Badawi
Abstract
This “research note” examines the strategic challenges faced by China, considering the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2024. It analyzes the complex interplay of domestic politics, economic interdependence, and geopolitical dynamics that shape Beijing’s foreign policy calculations.
The study argues that the prospect of a second Trump administration is compelling China to reevaluate long-held assumptions about bilateral relations and forcing a strategic reorientation with far-reaching implications for the global order. Through a qualitative analysis of public data, policy statements, and expert analyses, this research employs process tracing to identify key decision points and causal mechanisms in the evolution of Beijing’s policy stance.
Keywords: Geopolitical balancing, Diplomatic pragmatism, BRICS-NATO duality, Strategic ambiguity, Regional stabilization, Counterterrorism alignment, Multipolar diplomacy.
Introduction
The 2024 U.S. presidential election represents a critical juncture in U.S.-China relations, with profound implications for the global geopolitical landscape. Recent polling data from FiveThirtyEight suggests a tight race between former President Donald Trump and incumbent Joe Biden. As of May 22nd, 2024, Trump held a slim 0.9% national lead, garnering 41.1% support against Biden’s 40.2%.
Notably, Trump’s marginal 1.7% advantage on May 30th remained stubbornly intransigent despite his criminal conviction—a verdict that appeared to exert negligible influence on voter sentiment.
This statistical dead heat, occurring in the face of unprecedented legal challenges to a presidential candidate, underscores the deeply polarized nature of the American electorate and signals the potential for a seismic shift in U.S.-China relations. The prospect of a second Trump administration looms large over Beijing’s strategic calculus, forcing a reevaluation of long-held assumptions about the stability of bilateral ties and the trajectory of global geopolitics.
This paper posits that the potential return of Trump to the Oval Office is catalyzing a fundamental reassessment of China’s strategic posture. It examines how Beijing is grappling with this uncertain future, analyzing the complex interplay of economic, political, and security considerations that inform its policy decisions.
Theoretical Framework
This analysis draws upon several key theoretical constructs in international relations to elucidate the complex dynamics at play in U.S.-China relations.
- Two-Level Games
The concept of two-level games, as developed by Robert Putnam, provides a useful framework for understanding the intricate interplay between domestic politics and international negotiations. This theory posits that national leaders must simultaneously navigate the demands of domestic constituencies and international partners, often leading to complex strategic calculations. In the context of U.S.-China relations, this framework helps explain the constraints faced by both Chinese and American leaders as they formulate foreign policy. For China, the need to balance economic pragmatism with nationalist sentiment creates a delicate tightrope walk for policymakers. Similarly, U.S. leaders must consider domestic political pressures, economic interests, and strategic imperatives in their approach to China. - Liberal International Relations Theory
The analysis also engages critically with liberal international relations theory, particularly its postulate that economic interdependence serves as a stabilizing force in bilateral relations. This theory, which has underpinned much of the post-Cold War approach to China, argues that deep economic ties create shared interests that discourage conflict. However, the evolving U.S.-China relationship challenges this assumption, necessitating a reevaluation of the theory’s applicability in the context of great power competition. The paper examines how the potential for economic decoupling and renewed trade hostilities under a second Trump administration undermines the stabilizing effect of economic interdependence. - Strategic Hedging
The concept of strategic hedging, prevalent in contemporary international relations literature, provides a framework for understanding China’s approach to managing uncertainty in its relationship with the United States. This strategy involves preparing for multiple contingencies while avoiding outright alignment or confrontation.
Analysis
- Economic Interdependence and Trade War Dynamics
The potential for renewed trade hostilities under a second Trump administration represents a primary concern for Chinese policymakers. Trump’s campaign rhetoric has broached tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports and 10% across all foreign goods—threats that carry credibility given the precedent set during his first term.
During Trump’s initial tenure, the U.S. imposed $60 billion in punitive Section 301 tariffs on March 22nd, 2018, followed by a 25% levy on $34 billion of Chinese products in July of the same year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce branded this mercantile confrontation “the largest in global economic history,” highlighting the magnitude of the economic disruption.
The fragility of economic interdependence as a stabilizing factor challenges core assumptions in liberal international relations theory. The evolving U.S.-China relationship suggests a pressing need to reassess these assumptions considering contemporary geopolitical realities, where economic decoupling is increasingly viewed as a strategic imperative by both sides.
Beijing’s retaliatory tariff measures revealed its limited leverage, a consequence of the trade imbalance tilted in China’s favor and its dependence on crucial American exports, particularly in high-technology sectors like semiconductors. However, domestic pressures and nationalist sentiment preclude the possibility of capitulation, setting the stage for potential escalation should trade hostilities resume.
This dynamic highlight the delicate balance Chinese leaders must strike between economic pragmatism and nationalist imperatives, a tightrope walk made more precarious by the prospect of a confrontational U.S. administration. The potential for economic decoupling raises fundamental questions about the future of globalization and the structure of the international economic order.
Drawing on Farrell and Newman’s (2019) concept of “weaponized interdependence,” we can analyze how states with control over key nodes in global economic networks can leverage this position for strategic advantage. This explains both the U.S. ability to impose significant costs on China through trade measures and China’s efforts to develop alternative systems to reduce vulnerability.
- Geopolitical Realignment and Alliance Structures
Trump’s perceived isolationist tendencies and transactional approach to alliances significantly influence China’s strategic calculus. Beijing anticipates potential opportunities to exploit fissures in U.S. alliance networks, particularly in Europe and Asia.
The prospect of reduced U.S. investment in Ukraine, for instance, could splinter European solidarity, potentially creating openings for China to strengthen its economic and diplomatic ties with individual European nations. Similarly, any wavering in U.S. commitments to Asian allies like Japan and South Korea could prompt these nations to recalibrate their relationships with China, especially if North Korea resumes its provocative behavior.
The Taiwan issue remains a critical flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. While some outlier voices have posited the possibility of U.S. abandonment of Taiwan under Trump, Beijing remains wary of the former president’s hawkish stances, viewing them as potential gambits to extract broader concessions. The delicate balance of cross-strait relations, long maintained through strategic ambiguity, faces the prospect of destabilization under less predictable U.S. leadership.
This geopolitical uncertainty compels China to adopt a more proactive stance in regional affairs, potentially accelerating its efforts to establish alternative security frameworks and economic partnerships that exclude the United States.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as a strategic tool for expanding influence in the face of potential U.S. retrenchment. BRI projects might be accelerated or reprioritized in response to a more isolationist U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, further solidifying China’s economic and diplomatic ties across Eurasia and beyond.
- Sino-Russian Relations in a Shifting Global Order
The evolving Sino-Russian partnership, born of mutual antipathy towards Western hegemony, presents both opportunities and challenges for Beijing as it navigates an increasingly complex multipolar world order. The geopolitical bifurcation triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its deepening entente with China has reshaped the strategic landscape.
Under a second Trump administration, the prospects for a U.S.-Russia détente—once a nightmare scenario for Beijing—seem increasingly remote. This solidifies China’s position as Russia’s primary international partner, potentially increasing Beijing’s leverage over Moscow but also tying it more closely to a problematic ally.
The concept of “asymmetric interdependence” helps analyze the power dynamics between China and Russia. While they share common interests in challenging U.S. hegemony, their relationship is not one of equals. This asymmetry has implications for the stability and long-term prospects of their partnership, particularly as China’s global influence continues to grow relative to Russia’s.
- Strategic Hedging and Policy Flexibility
China’s adoption of hedging strategies reflects its effort to maintain strategic flexibility in an uncertain geopolitical environment. This approach allows Beijing to prepare for various contingencies, from continued engagement to potential conflict, without fully committing to any single course of action. Beijing is diversifying its economic partnerships, developing alternative financial systems, and investing in technological self-sufficiency as part of its hedging strategy. It is also cultivating alternative frameworks and insulating high-level ties while cautiously exploring backchannel overtures to Trump’s prospective cabinet.
Applying game theory concepts to model China’s decision-making process provides insights into how China might optimize its strategy given different probabilities of a Trump victory and various potential U.S. policy outcomes. This approach helps elucidate the complex calculations underlying Beijing’s strategic choices.
- Domestic Politics and Nationalist Sentiment
The paper delves into the complex interplay between China’s domestic political imperatives and its international strategy. It explores how the Chinese Communist Party must balance economic pragmatism with nationalist sentiment, particularly in the face of potential provocations from a Trump administration.
Here we must consider how domestic factors, including economic pressures, demographic challenges, and ideological considerations, shape China’s foreign policy choices. It also examines the potential for a second Trump presidency to galvanize nationalist sentiment in China, potentially limiting Beijing’s diplomatic flexibility.
The “rally ’round the flag” effect is explored to understand how external pressure from a confrontational U.S. administration might impact the Chinese Communist Party’s domestic legitimacy and policy choices. This draws on theories of authoritarian resilience and nationalist mobilization to provide a more nuanced understanding of the interplay between domestic and international factors in shaping China’s strategic posture.
Discussion
The evolving dynamics between the United States and China, coupled with domestic political shifts in the U.S., are precipitating a fundamental reassessment of international relations theory and practice. This section examines the broader implications of these changes, considering multiple perspectives on their potential impact on the global order.
- The End of Strategic Complacency
The deterioration of U.S.-China relations marks the end of an era characterized by relative strategic stability and economic interdependence. This shift challenges long-held assumptions about the pacifying effects of economic ties and the inevitability of China’s integration into the liberal international order. Proponents of engagement argue that economic interdependence remains a powerful deterrent to conflict, while critics contend that it has failed to moderate China’s behavior or align its interests with those of the West.
The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency further complicates this picture. Trump’s approach to foreign policy, characterized by skepticism towards traditional alliances and international institutions, represents a departure from post-World War II orthodoxy. Supporters argue that this approach is necessary to address the shortcomings of the current international system and protect U.S. interests. Critics counter that it undermines global stability and U.S. leadership.
- Implications for the Liberal International Order
These developments raise profound questions about the future of the liberal international order. Optimists maintain that the order’s institutions and norms are resilient enough to weather current challenges, pointing to their adaptability in past crises. Pessimists argue that the order is fundamentally threatened by the rise of authoritarian powers and the erosion of U.S. commitment to its maintenance.
The future of globalization is similarly contested. Some argue that economic decoupling between the U.S. and China is inevitable and necessary for national security reasons. Others contend that the costs of deglobalization would be catastrophic, potentially triggering a global economic crisis.
- Reshaping the Global Balance of Power
The U.S.-China rivalry is accelerating the transition to a more multipolar world order. This shift presents both opportunities and challenges for other nations. Some argue that a multipolar system will lead to greater instability and conflict, as historical precedents suggest. Others believe it could result in a more balanced and equitable international system, with the middle powers playing a more significant role.
For middle- and smaller-sized powers, navigating this new landscape is fraught with difficulty. Many face increasing pressure to align with either the U.S. or China, potentially forcing difficult choices between security and economic interests. Some analysts advocate for a strategy of hedging, maintaining positive relations with both powers. Others argue for the formation of new alliances or the strengthening of regional blocs to maintain autonomy.
- The Role of Technology and Ideology
The competition between the U.S. and China extends beyond traditional geopolitical realms into technological and ideological spheres. The race for dominance in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing has significant implications for future economic and military power. Some see this as a new “Cold War,” with competing systems of governance and values. Others argue that framing the competition in ideological terms oversimplifies a complex relationship and risks escalating tensions unnecessarily.
- Challenges to International Cooperation
The increasing strategic rivalry poses challenges for global cooperation on transnational issues such as climate change, pandemic response, and nuclear non-proliferation. Optimists argue that shared global challenges will necessitate cooperation even between rivals. Pessimists contend that increasing mistrust and competition will undermine efforts to address these critical issues.
Accordingly, the current state of U.S.-China relations and the potential for significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy underscore the need for a thorough reexamination of international relations theory and practice. While there is broad agreement that the global order is in flux, there remains significant debate about the implications of these changes and the best strategies for navigating them. As the situation continues to evolve, policymakers and scholars alike must grapple with these complex issues, balancing competing interests and values in an increasingly uncertain world.
Concluding Remarks
The paper concludes by highlighting the profound challenges facing Chinese policymakers as they navigate an increasingly complex and unpredictable international environment. It emphasizes the need for nuanced analysis that transcends simplistic notions of cooperation or conflict, recognizing the multifaceted nature of great power relations in the 21st century.
The conclusion reiterates the central argument that the prospect of a second Trump presidency is compelling China to fundamentally reassess its strategic posture, with far-reaching implications for the global order. It underscores the importance of understanding these dynamics for policymakers, scholars, and anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of contemporary international relations.
