Tim Walz and the Labyrinth of U.S.-China Relations: A Kaleidoscopic Analysis

By Professor Habib Al-Badawi

The selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as the running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has ignited a nuanced and complex discourse on the future of U.S.-China relations. Walz’s rich tapestry of experiences in China—from his formative years as a young teacher in Foshan to his numerous forays into Chinese society—presents a Janus-faced conundrum in the theater of international relations. His background offers a tantalizing promise of nuanced diplomacy yet simultaneously opens Pandora’s box of political vulnerabilities in an era of heightened Sino-American tensions.

This paper seeks to unravel the complexities surrounding Walz’s candidacy and its potential impact on U.S.-China relations. By employing a multifaceted theoretical framework, we aim to provide a comprehensive analysis that goes beyond surface-level political rhetoric to explore the deeper implications of Walz’s China connections in the context of contemporary geopolitics.

This analysis is grounded in several interconnected theoretical perspectives, each offering unique insights into the multifaceted nature of Walz’s position:

1.  Complex Interdependence Theory: Keohane and Nye’s (1977) theory emphasizes multiple channels of contact between societies, the absence of hierarchy among issues, and the diminished role of military force in relations between countries with complex interdependence. This framework helps us understand the multifaceted nature of U.S.-China relations and how Walz’s diverse experiences might navigate this complexity.
2. Constructivism in International Relations: As proposed by Wendt (1992), this theory suggests that international relations are shaped by shared ideas rather than material forces alone. Walz’s experiences in China and the perceptions surrounding them actively construct the reality of U.S.-China relations. This framework allows us to examine how Walz’s presence on the ticket shapes the narrative and understanding of bilateral relations.
3.  Role Theory in Foreign Policy Analysis: Holsti’s (1970) work on national role conceptions helps explain how Walz’s perceived role, shaped by his China experiences, might influence his approach to foreign policy. This theory provides insight into how Walz’s self-perception and others’ expectations of him could shape his potential actions in office.
4. Soft Power Theory: Nye’s (2004) concept of soft power—the ability to shape preferences of others through appeal and attraction—is relevant to how Walz’s China experience might influence diplomatic approaches. This perspective allows us to explore how Walz’s background could enhance or complicate America’s soft power projection towards China.
5.  Two-Level Game Theory: Putnam’s (1988) theory posits that international negotiations occur simultaneously at domestic and international levels. Walz’s position exemplifies this, balancing domestic political pressures with international diplomatic considerations. This theory helps explain the complex interplay between Walz’s domestic political challenges and his potential role in international diplomacy.
6. Walz’s China Odyssey: From Classroom to Campaign Trail: Tim Walz’s China story began in 1989-1990, as he taught in Foshan, a city in southern China’s Pearl River Delta. This period coincided with a pivotal moment in modern Chinese history, coming shortly after the Tiananmen Square protests. Over the subsequent three decades, Walz visited China approximately 30 times, including a honeymoon trip in 1994. His frequent interactions with China earned him the nickname “田华” (Tian Hua), meaning “fields of China ” (Qin & Bradsher, 2024).

This extensive experience forms the backdrop against which his current political role is being evaluated. It is worth noting that Walz’s engagement with China spans a period of dramatic change in the country’s economic and geopolitical position, from a developing nation to a global superpower. This longitudinal perspective potentially offers Walz unique insights into China’s evolution and its implications for U.S. foreign policy.

The American Political Chessboard: Pawns, Knights, and Dragons

The Republican Gambit: China as the Red Menace

Walz’s ties to China have elicited strong reactions from Republican leaders and conservative media, reflecting broader concerns about China’s influence and the potential compromising of American interests:

1. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer launched a probe into Walz’s China connections, elevating the issue from political rhetoric to formal investigation.
2. Senator Marco Rubio suggested that Walz exemplifies Beijing’s patient grooming of future American leaders, implying a long-term strategy of influence.
3. Senator Tom Cotton demanded explanations for Walz’s relationship with China, framing it as a potential national security concern.
4. Some conservatives labeled Walz a “Manchurian candidate” and “Totalitarian Tim,” invoking Cold War-era fears of communist infiltration (Tubilewicz & Liu, 2024).

These reactions can be understood through the lens of constructivism, as they actively shape the narrative surrounding Walz and, by extension, U.S.-China relations. They also exemplify the domestic level of Putnam’s two-level game, illustrating the internal pressures that could constrain Walz’s ability to engage with China.

The Democratic Defense: Nuance in a World of Black and White

Democrats and mainstream media outlets have attempted to present a more nuanced view of Walz’s China connections:

1. Emphasis on Walz’s awareness of human rights issues in China, positioning him as an informed critic rather than an apologist.
2. Foreign Policy characterized him as a “measured critic” of the Chinese Communist Party, implying a balanced approach to engagement (Musgrave, 2024).
3. Highlighting his meetings with figures like the Dalai Lama and Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong, Walz framing Walz as a supporter of democratic values.
4. The New York Times described Walz’s relationship with China as defying “easy stereotypes,” suggesting a complexity that transcends partisan narratives (Qin & Bradsher, 2024b) .

This framing aims to portray Walz as having a balanced and informed perspective on China, potentially enhancing his soft power in diplomatic contexts. It also reflects an attempt to navigate the complex interdependence of U.S.-China relations, acknowledging both points of cooperation and conflict.

The View from Beijing: Cautious Optimism or Strategic Silence?

Official Response

The Chinese government has maintained a neutral stance. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning avoided direct comments on Walz’s selection, instead calling for win-win cooperation with the United States. This response reflects China’s strategic approach to U.S. domestic politics, avoiding direct interference while signaling openness to dialogue.

Chinese Media Coverage

State-controlled media in China has presented a largely positive view of Walz:

1. Downplaying of his criticisms of China’s human rights record, focusing instead on his potential for constructive engagement.
2. Emphasis on his Midwest background and ability to challenge Republican narratives, potentially viewing him as a moderating influence on U.S. policy.
3. Focus on his political appeal and potential to make “rational and informed decisions” on U.S.-China relations, suggesting hope for a more pragmatic approach.
4. Some outlets suggested that his experiences in China could lead to more informed policymaking, implying a preference for leaders with direct knowledge of China.

This coverage can be understood through the lens of soft power theory, as China attempts to shape perceptions of Walz in a way that aligns with its diplomatic objectives.

 Public Opinion in China

Chinese netizens have shown mixed reactions:

1. Praise for Walz’s progressive politics, reflecting a segment of Chinese society that admires certain aspects of American democracy.
2. Skepticism about his ability to significantly influence U.S.-China relations, indicating awareness of the constraints of the U.S. political system.
3. Some are questioning the authenticity of his friendship with China, reflecting broader suspicions about U.S. intentions.

These diverse reactions illustrate the complex interdependence of U.S.-China relations, where public opinion can influence and be influenced by official policies and media narratives.

Potential Implications for U.S.-China Relations

Tim Walz’s unique background offers both significant opportunities and formidable challenges for future U.S.-China diplomacy. His profound understanding of China, gained through years of personal and professional engagement, could pave the way for more nuanced and informed policy approaches. Walz’s extensive experience in China—spanning decades of travel, teaching, and cultural immersion—positions him as a figure with valuable insights into Chinese society and governance.

However, the potential for Walz to effect substantial shifts in U.S. foreign policy may be constrained by domestic political pressures. As suggested by two-level game theory, the interplay between domestic political dynamics and international negotiations can limit the extent to which an individual can alter entrenched policy positions. The complex landscape of American politics, with its diverse and often contentious views on China, may restrict Walz’s capacity to translate his unique background into significant policy changes.

The contrasting perceptions of Walz within the U.S. and China further illustrate the intricate nature of bilateral relations. In the U.S., his connections to China have been met with skepticism and scrutiny, reflecting broader anxieties about Chinese influence and the implications for American political integrity. Conversely, in China, Walz is viewed with a degree of optimism, seen as a potential advocate for more stable and cooperative relations.

These divergent perspectives underscore the importance of managing narratives and expectations on both sides. Effective diplomacy will require navigating these complex perceptions, balancing domestic concerns with the potential for constructive engagement. As Walz’s role evolves, both the U.S. and China will need to carefully manage their expectations and craft narratives that accommodate the intricate realities of their bilateral relationship.

Navigating the Straits of Scylla and Charybdis

Through the prism of our theoretical framework, Tim Walz’s candidacy for vice president emerges as a complex nexus of constructivist narratives, two-level games, and potential soft power dynamics in U.S.-China relations. His deep China experience, far from being a simple asset or liability, manifests as a multifaceted construct that actively shapes perceptions and realities in the arena of international politics (Wendt, 1992).

The divergent reactions to Walz in the U.S. and China illuminate the intricate two-level game at play (Putnam, 1988). While some in China cautiously hope for a more understanding interlocutor in Washington—potentially enhancing America’s soft power (Nye, 2004)—the domestic criticism Walz faces underscores the challenges of navigating the domestic level of this international game.

As we contemplate the future of U.S.-China relations through the lens of complex interdependence (Keohane & Nye, 1977), it becomes clear that Walz’s influence, should he ascend to the vice presidency, will be one thread in a densely woven tapestry of multiple channels and issues. His unique perspective, shaped by his experiences and perceived role (Holsti, 1970), may provide valuable insights in navigating this complex interdependence, but it is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of this critical bilateral relationship single-handedly.

In the grand chessboard of global politics, Walz emerges not as a dominant piece but as one with unique potential for movement and influence. His role, constructed through shared ideas and perceptions, has the potential to surprise and outperform within the constraints of the broader strategic and domestic political context.

As the world watches this high-stakes match unfold, one thing is certain: the socially constructed game of U.S.-China relations, played across domestic and international levels, will continue to shape the destiny of nations for years to come, with soft power and complex interdependence serving as key dynamics in this evolving relationship.

This analysis underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the interplay between individual actors, domestic politics, and international relations in shaping the future of U.S.-China engagement. As we move forward, further research into the role of subjective experiences and perceptions in high-level diplomacy could yield valuable insights for both scholars and policymakers navigating the increasingly complex landscape of global politics.

References:

Holsti, K.J. (1970). National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy. International Studies Quarterly, 14(3), 233-309.

Keohane, R.O., & Nye, J.S. (1977). Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition. Boston: Little, Brown, and Company.

Musgrave, P. (2024, August 12). Tim Walz’s China record and the U.S. election: What it means for Harris and Trump. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/12/tim-walz-china-record-us-election-harris-trump/

Nye, J.S. (2004). Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. New York: Public Affairs.

Putnam, R.D. (1988). Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games. International Organization, 42(3), 427-460.

Qin, A., & Bradsher, K. (2024, August 11). Tim Walz’s complex ties to China and the U.S. presidential race. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/11/us/tim-walz-china.html

Qin, A., & Bradsher, K. (2024, August 12). Tim Walz’s China ties spark debate in U.S. presidential race. The New York Times. https://cn.nytimes.com/usa/20240812/tim-walz-china/

Tubilewicz, C., & Liu, W. (2024, August 14). Republicans believe Tim Walz has been groomed by China—but how does China view him? The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/republicans-believe-tim-walz-has-been-groomed-by-china-but-how-does-china-view-him-236867 

Wendt, A. (1992). Anarchy is what States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics. International Organization, 46(2), 391-425.